COST did a wonderful thing today...earnings caused the stock to drop right around my short strike of my butterfly, and as expected, IV dropped. In this case, it dropped 8% since yesterday, from 37% to 29%. Yesterday's vega was around -35, so 35 x 8 = $280 gained from IV dropping due to earnings released BMO. I'm still sitting at a loss, but only $-110 instead of $-564 just 5 days ago.

Next up is TEVA. I've recouped some of my losses, now at -8%, but TEVA hasn't had a pullback yet and is sitting near the upper breakeven on this uneven butterfly. The last two days have closed lower, but not where I'd like to see it. Below is my current analyze page, and below that is an adjustment I'm considering. I'd buy 5 butterflies, which would essentially roll out 5 of my credit spreads from 45-47.5 up to 47.5-50. It would cut my delta in half, increase my theta by 50%, move my upper breakeven 0.50, and only raise my lower breakeven by 0.20. Overall, a pretty good adjustment. We'll see what price action tomorrow brings us. If it's a down day, no adjustment will be made. I'll probably adjust if TEVA hits my upper BE.


My WMT butterfly is sitting nicely for the moment, currently up 8.7%. This one concerns me, as WMT and other retailers release same-store-sales reports every month. They occur around the end of the first week of the month, and I've gotten really screwed by these (see Jan 8, 2009 gap). They are like earnings reports every month. Option income traders don't like trading around earnings. Option spec traders yes, income no. The next report is due one week from today, Thursday 6/4 BMO. I'm thinking I might want to be out of this trade before then, just to be on the safe side, or at least substantially reduce my position. The problem with waiting until next Wednesday to do something is that IV typically rises several points between now and then, which is not good for a butterfly - short vega trade. May have to considering doing something tomorrow afternoon, like banking the 10-ish%.

Chad - I believe WMT has announced not to do the monthly thing anymore. (sorry to say but I am out of WMT 20% was enough for me enter 5/18 exit 5/27).
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