Tuesday, May 26, 2009

TEVA bites me

Well, didn't that just suck? TEVA moved up 1.6 standard deviations today. It's been trading in such a channel, but has now set a new 7-month high. But that's not the worst of it. The implied volatilities on my strikes got jacked around, each in the wrong direction. My longs lost IV whereas my short's IV was up. If you look at this position prior to today, and what the value should have been around today's close, I would have been down about $200. You can see this in yesterday's P&L graph. The upper marker, at 46.6, shows I should have only been down $205. As an interesting aside, OptionVue 6 shows that I would have been down around $375. You can see on the OV screenshot below that I would have been short 459 deltas at this point (TOS says only -310).

I didn't want to wait around long enough to get that high of deltas, so I started by buying in four 45-47.5 call verticals this morning at 10am, cutting the deltas roughly in half. Then TEVA continued a long, steady climb up, so I bought 3 more verticals at 1pm, again cutting the deltas roughly in half. At one point this morning, I was down around 25%, which is a max loss point. I was watching my P&L jump all over the place, obviously due to the leg IV's jumping around. It was apparent that the 45 calls were bid up with people covering like myself, but I don't understand why all the air got let out of my 42.5's. That's what really hurt this trade. The current position is shown below after things settled out. Deltas at -207 (TOS says -108...which to believe?) and P&L at a more reasonable -17%. You can see how the trade currently looks below.

I guess the plan is if TEVA continues up, I'll buy in more spreads, and look at selling some 47.5-50 spreads to get theta pumped back up. Or just throw in the towel with a max loss. We'll see.

I was also concerned with RUT's gigantic move up. My iron condors are both in great shape, but my 490 butterfly was a bit short delta, so I added a single Jun 550 call to help that out.

2 comments:

  1. Chad - What is your profit if you remove all the 45 - 47.50 spreads? That is what I call the ultimate adjustment. Plan to take the 45 - 47.50 off in a way that the remainder profit in the 42.50-45 spread is close to a 1/3 of your originall planned profit. That way the trade was not successfull but did not burn a hole.

    E.

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  2. Hey E,

    If I took off all the 45-47.5 spreads right now ($1.43 debit), I'd have about a 20% profit left at expiration, with a $44.8 breakeven point. But that would leave me long 316 delta, and if TEVA pulled back to 45, I'd be down 50%. Not a good place to be!

    Futures are down a little, 1 hour before open today. Here's to a small pullback!

    Chad

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